这个冬季是暖冬还是冷冬？权威回应
<section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;"><a target="_blank" href="https://18591656-2113.hd.webportal.top/18591656/9AJFJeqyk4z1pjKt4Pn-Bg/xykj.html?isOfficialLianjie=false&shareDeep=3&eleUid=&otherplayer=osi4vwvoptM2n8pqsoxOhdAUPy78&editQrcode=true&_origin=3&flyerfid=&tsSid=0&_source=3&from=singlemessage&canal=-1¬P4Share=false&jumpFlag=true&tsFromViewerId=0" textvalue="你已选中了添加链接的内容" linktype="text" imgurl="" tab="outerlink" data-linktype="1"></a></section><p><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="127894" style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section style="margin: 10px auto;outline: 0px;"><section style="outline: 0px;display: flex;align-items: center;"><section data-width="100%" style="outline: 0px;width: 668px;border-top: 1px solid rgb(131, 201, 255);height: 1px;overflow: hidden;"><br style="outline: 0px;"/></section></section><section style="padding: 10px 13px;outline: 0px;background-color: rgb(241, 246, 252);"><section data-autoskip="1" style="outline: 0px;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1.5px;color: rgb(48, 48, 48);background-color: transparent;"><strong style="outline: 0px;">“从判定标准看，2023/2024年冬季既非暖冬也非冷冬，为正常年份。”</strong>在中国气象局1日举行的新闻发布会上，国家气候中心副主任贾小龙说。</section></section></section></section></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;"></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br style="outline: 0px;"/></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">去年厄尔尼诺事件形成并发展一直持续至今。一般来说，<strong style="outline: 0px;">厄尔尼诺年我国出现暖冬的概率较大，为何刚刚过去的冬季不是暖冬？</strong></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br style="outline: 0px;"/></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">贾小龙表示，从统计上来看，厄尔尼诺年我国出现暖冬的概率相对较大，不过影响我国冬季冷暖的最主要因子是西伯利亚高压、极涡等中高纬度环流系统，而这些中高纬度环流系统的变化主要取决<span style="outline: 0px;caret-color: red;">于大气内部动力过程，受厄尔尼诺事件的直接影响相对较小。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br style="outline: 0px;"/></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">贾小龙介绍，<strong style="outline: 0px;">暖冬的判定是基于整个冬季的平均气温，将其与常年进行比较。</strong>例如，全国有2500多个气象台站，如果单站冬季平均气温偏高幅度超过本站暖冬阈值，即可定义为单站暖冬；若全国一半以上的台站出现暖冬，则定义为全国暖冬。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br style="outline: 0px;"/></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="outline: 0px;">2023/2024年冬季，全国平均气温为-2.8℃，较常年同期偏高0.3℃。</strong>全国暖冬指数为36.7%，即全国有36.7%的站点出现暖冬，冷冬指数为15%，均未达到一半。<strong style="outline: 0px;">因此，总体来看，2023/2024年冬季为正常年份。</strong></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br style="outline: 0px;"/></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">贾小龙表示，即使某一年我国为暖冬，也会存在明显的地域差异，不排除某些地区气温明显偏低。同时，暖冬年份也可能有极端强寒潮导致阶段性强降温。2023/2024年冬季气温空间差异也比较大，从暖冬指数空间分布来看，暖冬主要出现在华南、西南等地，而华北南部、黄淮、江淮一带多为冷冬。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br style="outline: 0px;"/></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">从天气尺度上看，贾小龙介绍，这个冬季冷空气活动较为活跃，寒潮次数偏多，强度偏强，<strong style="outline: 0px;">共有11次冷空气过程影响我国（其中3次寒潮），较常年同期偏多。</strong>这是因为这个冬季中高纬度环流系统表现出很强的季节内变化特征，西伯利亚高压等冬季风环流系统阶段性偏强，致使气温冷暖起伏比较大。</p><p><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;"><br/></section><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor"><section><section label="edit by 135editor"><section><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor"><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="138657"><section><section><section><section><section data-autoskip="1"><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans 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visible;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="96857" style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><section style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><section data-autoskip="1" style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><section label="edit by 135editor" style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><section style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor" style="outline: 0px;"><hr style="outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;border-style: solid;border-right-width: 0px;border-bottom-width: 0px;border-left-width: 0px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1);transform-origin: 0px 0px;transform: scale(1, 0.5);visibility: visible;"/><section style="margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);visibility: visible;text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei UI, Microsoft YaHei, Arial, 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0px;"><br/></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></p><p><br/></p><link rel="stylesheet" href="//bbs.221700.com/source/plugin/wcn_editor/public/wcn_editor_fit.css?v134_Ua8" id="wcn_editor_css"/> 这个冬天初期和末期很冷。。 是个冬季中高纬度环流系统表现出很冷 暖冬是肯定的，寒春是绝对的。 这个冬天感觉不冷 正常年份。 有暖气的不冷，没有暖气的房子是真的冷， 这个冬天刚开始猛的很 中间一般 收尾一般 今天是该冷不冷，不该冷的时候超级冷 今天有点冷 反正不热
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