猪肉价格再降!发改委三级预警
<p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">每日经济新闻消息,“猪粮比价”是直观反映生猪养殖成本收益对比关系的重要指标,广受生猪养殖业关注。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">1月9日,国家发改委官方微信号发布消息显示,据国家发展改革委监测,1月3日~6日,全国平均猪粮比价为5.93:1,按照《完善政府猪肉储备调节机制 做好猪肉市场保供稳价工作预案》规定,进入过度下跌三级预警区间。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">2021年6月,国家发改委等五部门联合印发《完善政府猪肉储备调节机制 做好猪肉市场保供稳价工作预案》(以下简称《预案》)。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">《每日经济新闻》记者注意到,《预案》在“价格过度下跌情形下的储备响应”中提到,当生猪大范围恐慌性出栏、生猪和猪肉价格大幅下跌时,实施临时储备收储,以有效“托市”。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">但临时收储的启动条件明确,要求国家层面在过度下跌三级预警发布时暂不启动临时储备收储;二级预警发布时视情启动;一级预警发布时,启动临时储备收储;地方启动临时储备收储条件参照国家层面做法执行。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong>当前猪肉价格较2022年10月最高价下跌超三成</strong></p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">近期猪肉价格持续下降。自2022年12月初以来,猪肉价格经历了一波持续下跌走势,直到12月下旬至元旦节前才有所反弹。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">据农业农村部信息中心和山东卓创资讯股份有限公司联合监测,2022年第51周(即2022年12月26日-12月30日),16省(直辖市)瘦肉型白条猪肉出厂价格总指数的周平均值为每公斤23.02元,环比上涨4.0%,同比上涨6.7%,但该价格仍处在近3个月以来的较低水平。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong>瘦肉型白条猪肉出厂价格总指数运行走势图</strong></p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">瘦肉型白条猪肉出厂价格自2022年10月中旬以来连续回落</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">农业农村部的最新监测数据显示,截至1月9日14时,全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为24.44元/公斤,比上周五下降2.7%。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">“这一价格较2022年10月份最高价下跌31.5%,比2022年同期微涨7%。”农信互联生猪行业分析师夏晨丰在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">行情宝数据显示,1月9日,全国外三元生猪均价15.12元/公斤,比2022年10月份最高价下跌47.2%。“自2022年10月中旬全国生猪价格及猪肉价格达到年内最高价之后,均转入明显下跌态势。”夏晨丰说。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">在夏晨丰看来,当前猪肉价格主要受生猪价格下跌的带动,根本原因在于生猪供给的释放及猪肉消费需求的疲软。而生猪供给的释放则源于前期压栏生猪、二次育肥生猪以及集团规模场的出栏计划提前。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">“进入2023年以来,随着新冠疫情逐渐平稳,感染人员逐渐康复,猪肉消费需求确实有所好转。元旦以来,屠宰企业屠宰量明显提升。”夏晨丰说,行情宝统计,2023年第一周,样本屠宰企业的屠宰量比2022年最后一周提升了近8%。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">“但是,与此同时,养殖端出栏积极性也较高,且北方多地大体重生猪存栏仍有相当比重,集团规模场在1月份出栏计划也较为可观。”她说,生猪供给充足,导致猪价元旦后整体呈弱势下跌态势。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong>预计春节前生猪及猪肉价格处于震荡盘整状态</strong></p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">《预案》中明确,猪粮比价采用国家发改委监测统计的每周生猪出场价格与全国主要批发市场二等玉米平均批发价格的比值,根据近年生产成本数据测算,对应生猪生产盈亏平衡点的猪粮比价约为7:1。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">过度下跌情形预警分为三级。就猪粮比价这一指标而言,当猪粮比价低于6:1时,由国家发展改革委发布三级预警;当猪粮比价连续3周处于5:1~6:1,发布二级预警;当猪粮比价低于5:1,发布一级预警。 </p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">1月3日~6日,全国平均猪粮比价为5.93:1。这意味着什么?</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">对此,夏晨丰对每经记者分析,按照《预案》的规定,猪粮比价低于6:1即进入过度下跌三级预警区间,但是还不具备启动临时收储的条件。按照文件的测算,将生猪生产盈亏平衡点的猪粮比价定为7:1,这意味着全国生猪养殖已经进入亏损状态。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">“行情宝数据显示,2023年第一周全国生猪自繁自养已经陷入亏损;而专业育肥养殖户已经连亏3周,头均亏损接近500元。”她说。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">后期的猪粮比价会不会继续下跌?对此夏晨丰认为,近期玉米价格比较稳定,整体稳中弱跌,未来猪粮比价是否会继续下跌主要取决于生猪价格的变化。如果短时内有集中性出栏,那么猪价下跌仍会带来猪粮比价的下行,而且春节后至二季度处于传统猪肉消费淡季,因此预计后期猪粮比价仍会有所下跌。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">春节将至,猪肉价格为何不涨反跌?后期预计走势如何?</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">对此夏晨丰表示,春节将至,猪肉消费需求虽然明显提升,但是生猪及猪肉供给压力仍然较大,前期压栏的大体重生猪仍有部分积压到春节前集中释放,生猪出栏均重下降较慢,大猪库存面临出清压力,这是猪肉价格不涨反降的主要原因。</p><p style="margin-top: 32px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; outline: none; text-indent: 2em; text-align: justify; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: medium; line-height: 32px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; color: rgb(64, 64, 64); white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">“目前猪价跌破了成本线,养殖端缩量抗价的心态有所增强。农历小年马上来临,随着进城务工人员返乡,农村猪肉消费将会有所提升,猪肉市场整体处于供需双增的局面,因此预计春节前生猪及猪肉价格处于震荡盘整状态,关键节点或有短时上涨。”夏晨丰说。</p><p><br/></p><link rel="stylesheet" href="//bbs.221700.com/source/plugin/wcn_editor/public/wcn_editor_fit.css?v134_nNI" id="wcn_editor_css"/> 不喜欢吃肉 吃点青菜吧 再等等可以灌香肠了哈哈哈 降价是为猛涨价做准备,不信走着瞧,离涨价不远了 猪猪这么可爱,红烧肉肯定很好吃 “猪猪这么可爱、怎么可以吃猪猪” 便宜的猪猪更可爱 便宜的猪猪更可爱 真便宜10块多一点 少吃肉 排骨还那样 烤肉可以 这确实伤企业而不是农户
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